A great tragedy is unfolding in China and there seems no end in sight for the misery of its people. Just three years ago, much was different. China was exciting, buoyant and (relatively) open to the West. Now borders are effectively closed both ways, major cities are in lockdown, universities are closed, and protests have been curtailed, with snatch squads, and the fast mobilisation of even more oppressive and fearsome measures. A million Chinese are in quarantine huts, with hundreds of thousands more being built in camp-cities near Guangzhou and other major centres. The full economic impact is hard to discern from official sources, but any westerners still left in Shanghai, are exhaustedly leaving and are unlikely to return. China is, whether deliberately so, or not, turning in on itself. They are pulling down the blinds and bolting people metaphorically, and literally, into their homes. The shutters are also closed in other ways. Chinese authorities are even ‘blurring’ TV coverage of the World Cup in Qatar, so citizens cannot see 80,000 unmasked people in the stands getting on with living their lives like it’s 2018.

Despite the emerging economic and healthcare disaster, President Xi and China’s local officials remain indefatigable in their commitment to Zero-Covid. As the FT reports today: “In late 2020, Xi extolled China as the “first major economy to have recuperated from the crisis and achieved economic recovery, a testimony to its resilience and vibrancy”. Now though, cases are close to record levels, economic vibrancy has been clobbered by rolling urban lockdowns and a large cohort of insufficiently vaccinated elderly people remain at risk.”

I first visited about 15 years ago and returned numerous times. My son studied Mandarin at Jiao Tong University.  I enjoyed watching world-class golf there, as a guest at 150th anniversary celebrations of HSBC. Just four years ago, we enjoyed a family holiday in China, climbing the Great Wall, travelling by bullet train, visiting the Forbidden City, and glimpsing something of the history and culture of this amazing country. I have in recent years led learning programs and discovery visits with large groups of western executives to Hangzhou and Shanghai. Those visits were inspiring and unnerving in many ways; leaving us amazed at the sheer ambition, appetite and invention of the Chinese. I have written elsewhere about visiting The World Expo and the headquarters of Alibaba in 2010, and of the profound impact that trip had on me and many others. The view from The Bund (or back towards it from Pudong) remains one of the most extraordinary nighttime city-scapes in the world, etched in the mind. We have always experienced great hospitality, warmth and civility from our hosts in China. But any prospect of a return seems many years away, if ever.

Zero-COVID probably made sense in the early days of the pandemic. Three years later, as the whole world watches agog, it looks like perverse lunacy, like King Canute, stood before the waves. 

There is a tragedy unfolding in China, and for those of us who have glimpsed something of this remarkable nation, it's heartbreaking to watch.